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RESEARCH


January Newsletter: 2025 Lookback, Decembers Progress, Macro and 2026 Outlook
December 2025: The Year Crypto Grew Up the Hard Way Crypto didn’t end 2025 with fireworks like previous 4-year cycles have. It ended with a collective exhale, as prices wallowed. BTC opened the year around ~$96,000 and ended it around ~$93,000. ETF outflows reflected tax-loss harvesting, not panic. XRP ETPs saw inflows, and futures open interest ticked higher while options positions expired. No meaningful Bitcoin selling by early-era whales appeared on-chain. But the structur
Jan 165 min read


December Newsletter: BTC Teeters on the edge, Monad launches, Ethereum ships Fusaka and More.
November 2025: The Month Markets Lost the Plot Nothing about November behaved as a “bull market year” is supposed to. Bitcoin and Ethereum delivered their worst November since the FTX collapse. China banned crypto again and, somehow, markets acted surprised. Japan revived the yen-carry unwind that crushed traders in mid-2024. A fresh round of geopolitical rumors clouded the macro picture. And yet, pockets of real progress across Ethereum, Bitcoin, Solana, BNB Chain, and the b
Dec 8, 20256 min read


November Newsletter: BTC, DAT Compression and Macro
October delivered a sharp reality check for the cryptocurrency market. For more than a decade, the month had been associated with strong rallies. This time, it ended with widespread losses, fading momentum, and a shift in sentiment. Beneath the surface, technology advances and regulatory decisions continued to reshape the market, setting the stage for a volatile November. Macro and Market Conditions Bitcoin broke its long-standing “Uptober” streak with its first negative Octo
Nov 10, 20255 min read


October Newsletter: BTC ATHs, DAT Compression, and Macro Bullishness?
Macro: The Setup for a Fourth-Quarter Rally September was a month of contradiction. On one hand, the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since 2023 and a weakening dollar ignited optimism across risk assets. On the other hand, Washington’s budget gridlock triggered a partial government shutdown that slowed the release of critical data and disrupted key regulatory timelines, including pending spot ETF approvals. Between those two forces—monetary easing and political dysfunction—t
Oct 15, 20255 min read
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