July Newsletter: BTC ATHs, Robinhood Tokenizing Equities and Treasury Companies

June 2025: The Month Markets Started Taking Crypto Seriously (Again)

The global economy in June offered a contradictory picture: U.S. growth slowed, but risk assets rallied. The macro backdrop shifted into a gear markets favor—loose monetary conditions, persistent fiscal expansion, and just enough geopolitical tension to keep haven assets relevant without triggering panic. U.S. equities, emerging market stocks, and industrial metals all posted strong risk-adjusted returns. Bitcoin outperformed every major asset class, climbing above $112,000 and setting a new all-time high.

While traditional indicators pointed to softness in manufacturing and consumer demand, global liquidity told a different story. The world’s combined M2 money supply rose nearly 6% year-to-date to just under $100 trillion. Europe and Japan led the monetary expansion, though the drivers differed—rate cuts in the EU, fiscal stimulus in Japan. Bitcoin appears to be absorbing an outsized portion of this liquidity, particularly compared to altcoins, whose relative underperformance continues to be notable.

Despite the narrative tension between slowing U.S. data and rising asset prices, investors remained focused on liquidity and policy support. The federal deficit remains unusually large for an economy with low unemployment. The OBBBA stimulus package, signed into law earlier this month, extended that policy stance. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled a likely policy pivot before year-end. In short, the market is betting that the liquidity taps will stay open.

Macroeconomic Signals and Their Implications for Crypto Markets

Understanding the broader macroeconomic environment is critical to interpreting market behavior, particularly in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The business cycle remains one of the most reliable indicators of market positioning. A key metric often cited in this context is the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index, which offers a view into economic expansion or contraction based on industrial activity. A reading below 50 suggests contraction, while a reading above it signals expansion. The most recent ISM print came in at 49, a slight improvement from prior months. While still technically in contraction territory, this uptick hints at the potential start of a cyclical turnaround.

Historically, periods when ISM crosses back above 50 have coincided with renewed market risk appetite. In crypto, this seasonal pattern is colloquially known as entering the “banana zone,” a stretch when digital assets tend to outperform. However, ISM alone does not determine the state of the cycle. Global liquidity is another critical input, particularly for assets like Bitcoin, which have shown high sensitivity to liquidity flows.

Global liquidity, when adjusted forward by three months, has consistently demonstrated a strong correlation with Bitcoin price movements. Recent data indicates that liquidity has been expanding at a notable pace, but Bitcoin prices have yet to reflect this growth. Typically, when liquidity and Bitcoin decouple in this manner, either liquidity must stall or Bitcoin prices play catch-up. Given current trends, the latter seems more plausible.

This is not merely a Bitcoin story. Rising liquidity often benefits the broader crypto market. Altcoins, in particular, tend to outperform in periods when liquidity is abundant and risk tolerance expands. This suggests the current backdrop may favor a more aggressive rotation into non-Bitcoin assets if liquidity continues to rise and macro conditions remain supportive.

Separately, inflation data from alternative sources like Truflation provides a more real-time view of consumer price trends compared to traditional government-issued CPI numbers. At the end of the most recent month, Truflation’s real-time inflation reading stood at 2.07 percent, marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. This level is likely to be interpreted favorably by policymakers and markets alike.

Current market expectations now reflect a roughly 90 percent probability of two to four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. That probability is partially driven by inflation moderating near target levels and by political pressure. With the upcoming U.S. presidential election, comments from Donald Trump have added weight to the idea that the Fed may be nudged toward a more accommodative policy stance. If this materializes, rate-sensitive assets like crypto stand to benefit further, as lower rates typically coincide with higher liquidity and stronger risk appetite.

Altogether, the combination of early signs of a business cycle shift, rising liquidity, and benign inflation could mark a favorable macro regime for crypto markets in the second half of the year. Whether that leads to a sustained rally or short-lived rotation depends on how these trends evolve in the coming months.

Bitcoin Breaks Out and Treasuries Get Weird

📈 Narrative: Corporate BTC treasuries 2.0📈Signal: Over 245,000 BTC acquired by public companies in Q2Our Take: Bitcoin treasury adoption is no longer a MicroStrategy sideshow—it’s a strategic asset allocation play for a growing class of corporates.Token Angle: $BTC, $MSTR, $WGMI

Bitcoin rose more than 30% in the second quarter, leading all other major assets. Its correlation with U.S. equities remained high at 0.48, an unusual level for an asset often touted as uncorrelated. Still, bitcoin also attracted attention as a hedge against fiscal deterioration. The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on new tariffs gave markets room to breathe, while persistent concerns about U.S. debt and geopolitical instability helped fuel demand for hard assets. The Swiss franc rose for similar reasons.

Perhaps the most interesting development was the rise of Bitcoin-centric corporate treasuries. What started with MicroStrategy (now Strategy) in 2020 has evolved into a corporate strategy for a growing number of public companies. In Q2 alone, listed firms acquired more than 245,000 bitcoins—more than double what ETFs absorbed. Several new entrants such as Twenty One, Strive, and Nakamoto were created with the sole goal of accumulating bitcoin. Notably, Trump Media and GameStop also bought in using convertible debt proceeds.

While the approach has gained momentum, not all treasuries are treated equally. Some firms, like Nakamoto, trade at premiums to their net asset value of nearly 10x. Others, like Trump Media and GameStop, trade at a discount, though this likely reflects poor performance in their core business rather than investor skepticism of bitcoin holdings. Still, the market is differentiating between bitcoin as a balance sheet strategy and bitcoin as a narrative prop. Access to ETFs, jurisdictional considerations, and asset composition are proving to be important variables.

Stablecoin Summer Isn’t a Meme Anymore

Circle’s June IPO captured a new level of interest in stablecoins. The USDC issuer’s share price surged from $31 to $181 by month-end, trading at more than 150 times last year’s EBITDA. For now, investors appear to be pricing in substantial future growth from interest revenue, especially as stablecoins continue to act like high-yielding money-market funds in digital form. Circle's public debut also coincided with weakness in traditional payment stocks like Visa and Mastercard, a signal that markets may be repricing the role of legacy firms in a tokenized future.

Monthly transaction volume in stablecoins now hovers around $800 billion, rivaling Visa’s $1.1 trillion monthly throughput. And while most of this usage still comes from emerging markets, U.S. regulatory momentum may soon shift that dynamic. The Senate passed the GENIUS Act with bipartisan support, which would create a formal regulatory framework for U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins. Circle’s IPO, paired with this legislative progress, marks the strongest signal to date that stablecoins will not remain a fringe financial product.

Robinhood’s Tokenization Gambit

Robinhood unveiled one of the most aggressive tokenization strategies to date. The brokerage now allows EU users to purchase tokenized versions of U.S. stocks like Tesla and Apple via Arbitrum, with dividends flowing through the Robinhood app. The firm also introduced derivatives tied to private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, though it quickly encountered resistance. OpenAI clarified it had no involvement in the initiative and that Robinhood’s tokens do not represent real equity.

The bigger story is Robinhood’s plan to launch its own Layer 2 chain—Robinhood Chain—on Arbitrum Orbit. Unlike other platforms, Robinhood seeks full vertical control: custody, trading, and onchain infrastructure. This structure allows Robinhood to capture transaction fees directly through sequencer operations while retaining jurisdictional control. The move follows its $200 million acquisition of Bitstamp, which has given it over 50 global licenses and positioned it as a serious contender in the tokenized asset space.

Robinhood’s ambition is to enable 24/7 trading, including after-hours activity, which it plans to run through Bitstamp. The firm’s vision is to tokenize everything from equities to private securities, allowing users to self-custody and use tokenized assets in DeFi. It is unclear whether U.S. regulators will permit these practices to continue, particularly as they challenge Regulation NMS and other securities laws. A letter from SIFMA to the SEC highlighted these concerns and underscored how tokenized securities, even if only accessible to EU users for now, are testing the boundaries of traditional finance.

ETF Momentum Grows but Gets Complicated

June also saw the SEC approve two major crypto ETF milestones. First, it greenlit the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund’s conversion to an ETF, including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA. Second, it approved the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF, marking the first spot staking ETF in the U.S. This reflects a broader shift at the SEC under new leadership, signaling greater openness to a wider array of crypto-based products.

At the same time, the SEC is reportedly working with exchanges to create a standardized process for listing token-based ETFs. The goal is to streamline the cumbersome S-1 and 19b-4 dual filings into a unified “fast-track” path. This could open the door for dozens of new listings, particularly for assets that meet specific criteria, including decentralization, liquidity, open-source architecture, and low insider ownership. These are similar to the criteria outlined in the House’s CLARITY Act.

That said, investor appetite remains concentrated. Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than $50 billion in inflows, while Ethereum’s trail behind by a wide margin. Long-tail assets like DOGE, ADA, or AVAX may eventually secure ETF listings, but it’s unclear whether retail or institutional investors will show up in size. Approval is no guarantee of interest.

Looking Ahead

Tokenized assets, corporate bitcoin treasuries, and stablecoin revenues are all reordering the financial stack faster than most expected. Fintechs like Robinhood are moving quickly to stake their claim, while legacy firms are left reacting. The challenge for regulators is no longer whether to engage, but how to set coherent and enforceable standards in a world that trades around the clock and beyond borders.

June 2025 may go down as the month when crypto stopped trying to play nice with traditional finance and started rewriting its own rules. The line between crypto-native infrastructure and the traditional financial system is getting thinner by the week. For better or worse, the convergence is now unavoidable.